Here are our preliminary picks for the big categories, as well as who we think should win. For our thoughts on the nominees, in general, you can read our 2010 Oscar Nominees Post. Check back on the 5th for our individual picks for each category and don’t forget to follow along with our live blog during the ceremonies.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

There are really only two real contenders here—George Clooney and Jeff Bridges. Morgan Freeman is a great actor. And his soft, deep voice could convince people to do anything, except give a shit about rugby or South Africa. Invictus is just a bad, boring movie. Hurt Locker, on the other hand, is spectacular. But as good as it is, and it is fucking great, Jeremy Renner had little to do with it. That movie was one of those rare cases, where the combination of cinematography, editing, direction and acting came together to produce a film greater than the sum of its parts. As far as A Single Man, we haven’t seen it yet. But it’s tough to imagine Colin Firth out performing Bridges and Clooney. Both gave superb performances this year, but Clooney was still Clooney and a Jeff Bridges Oscar win is a long time coming.

Who Should Win: George Clooney/Jeff Bridges
Who Will Win: Jeff Bridges

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

This category is filled with tremendous acting talent. Any other year, this would be a very tough choice. But this isn’t any other year. It’s 2010, the Year of The Jew Hunter. This is especially unfortunate for Woody Harrelson, who gives his best performance since White Men Can’t Jump with his turn in The Messenger. However, neither Woody nor any of the other nominees can match the iconic, potentially timeless character of Hans Landa. Christoph Waltz is a lock.

Who Should Win: Cristoph Waltz
Who Will Win: Christoph Waltz

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Ever time we look at the list of nominees for this category, our first thought is, “Goddamn it. Really? Sandra Bullock? For The Blind Side?” Normally, it would be tough for the Academy to vote against Meryl Streep or Helen Mirren in anything. But this year, Sandra BUllock has been cleaning up all the awards preceding the Oscars. And that’s usually a good indicator of which direction the Academy is leaning. As for the other nominees, we’d really like to see Carey Mulligan to win after her show-stealing role in An Education. Expect good things to follow from her. That leaves us with Gabourey Sidibe … fuck it. We’re not even gonna talk about Precious.

Who Should Win: Carey Mulligan
Who Will Win: Sandra Bullcok

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Ok. We know. We just said we weren’t going to talk about Precious. And as strange as we feel saying this with such solid, proven actresses in contention (Cruz, Farmiga, Kendrick and Gyllenhaal), Mo’Nique finally put down the bucket o’ chicken and grabbed a big, fucked up cup o’ crazy and self-loathing. She still perpetuates an ugly stereotype, but she can definitely fucking act. Like Christoph Waltz, she has this one locked up.

Who Should Win: Mo’Nique
Who Will Win: Mo’Nique

Best Director

Lee Daniels can suck it (This is the last time we mention him or his Godforsaken film. From now on, we shall refer to it as, The Film That Shall Not Be Named ). Reitman is obviously very talented, but it was the writing, more so than the direction, that really made Up In The Air a truly special film. James Cameron has no business being nominated here, it’s a fucking conspiracy (see below). Tarantino is the obvious choice here. But with all the hype Bigelow has been getting, what with having a vagina and all, she might steal it. And we can’t say we’d be all that mad. She did do a great job.

Who Should Win: Quentin Tarantino
Who Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow

Best Adapted/Original Screenplay

This is, by far, the most stacked category this year. Between the original and adapted screenplays nominated, there is only really one that doesn’t deserve to be here. Guess which one it is. Give up? It’s The Film That Shall Not Be Named. It’s pretty tough to pick a clear winner here and we won’t be upset regardless of the outcome. It would be great if the Academy could, for once, just be cool and give Best Adapted Screenplay to In The Loop. But as it’s going against Nick Hornby and Jason Reitman, that’s going to be difficult, difficult, lemon difficult. Gun to our heads, we’d love to say Inglourious Basterds for original and In The Loop for adapted. Realistically, however, we’ll have to swap the latter with Up In The Air.

Who Should Win: In The Loop (adapted), Inglourious Basterds (original)
Who Will Win: Up In The Air (adapted), Inglourious Basterds (original)

Best Picture

You’d think, due to the doubling of the nominees, Best Picture would be a tough choice this year. Sadly, it’s not. This was a super weak year for mainstream film. So on principle, we’re throwing out Avatar and pretty much everything else except District 9, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, and Up In The Air. We loved all four. But you just can’t fade The Hurt Locker and Basterds. Basically whichever wins Best Director, the other needs to win here.

Who Should Win: Hurt Locker
Who Will Win: Avatar

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Conspiracies and Final Thoughts

• There is a very good chance that James Cameron and Avatar could fuck around and steal a bunch of these awards from far more deserving nominees. So don’t be surprised if it takes Best Picture, Best Director, Best Editing, Best Score and a shit ton of awards it didn’t earn. The Academy tends to fawn over fancy effects and box office numbers.

• From a direction standpoint, Tarantino was a clear step above the rest of the field. However, knowing how the Academy likes to make a statement; Kathryn Bigelow will probably win this year, becoming the first woman to win Best Director. If it were up to us, she’d win for Best Picture and the world would finally recognize what a G Tarantino really is.

• There was only one glaring omission this year. (This is not counting the obvious omissions I expect from the Academy, like failing to recognize Rian Johnson’s The Brothers Bloom.) And that is Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs. As much as the Academy loves its animated, fun-for-the-family fare, you’d think something as enjoyable as this film would’ve gotten some love. But, no. They decided to throw The Secret of Kells a nod. You know, just to fuck with you. So you’d be all like, “Oh? The Secret of Kells, what an interesting choice Academy! You’re so much smarter than me! I’m gonna to my local Blockbuster and rent it immediately!” Fuck them and fuck you, because I know that’s exactly how you reacted to that nomination. And while I’m on the topic, UP is probably going to win this year. Even though, Wes Anderson has properly atoned for his past sins with Fantastic Mr. Fox and totally deserves this shit. Goddamnit. I hate the Oscars.

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