It’s 2009. The Golden Globes have come and gone. Obama is officially president. We can finally put 2008 behind us, right? Wrong. Tomorrow, the Academy will announce its nominees for the 2009 Oscars ceremony on February 22. Which means for the next month, you can add, “So who do you think will win best sound mixing?” to your repertoire of suave pick-up lines.

As we said, we’ve never really paid attention to the Golden Globes. Around this time of year, we’re usually already trying to predict not only the Oscar nominees, but also the winners. However, after the surprising sweeps by Slumdog Millionaire and Kate Winslet, we decided to read up on the HFPA and compare them with the Academy. We found some interesting stuff.

2006 was the year of Crash, at least for the Oscars. Strangely enough, it didn’t even get nominated for a Golden Globe, which went to Brokeback Mountain (over A History of Violence) and Walk the Line (over The Squid and the Whale). If that wasn’t weird enough, George Clooney and Rachel Weisz undeservedly won both awards for best supporting (Syriana and The Constant Gardener respectively), and Ang Lee won both for Brokeback Mountain (also undeserved).

2007 saw some interesting competition. Little Miss Sunshine, Thank You For Smoking, The Departed, Babel, The Queen…the list goes on. The Academy was, if nothing else, consistent in its awards (The Departed won a couple…). The HFPA, on the other hand, gave best picture to Babel and Dreamgirls, the latter actually cleaning up the Golden Globes, with Eddie Murphy winning best supporting actor (Alan Arkin wasn’t even nominated, seriously?) and Jennifer Hudson getting supporting actress in both ceremonies, which is just silly.

2008 was the closest race in recent years, so we can’t be mad at either group. Atonement got the Globe for best picture, No Country for Old Men got the Oscar. Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) won a director Globe, The Coens scored the Oscar. The only travesty was Tilda Swinton winning a best supporting Oscar for Michael Clayton.

What we found interesting was that, in all three years, every Oscar winner for actor and actress also won the Golden Globe. Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote) and Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line) in 2006. Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland) and Helen Mirren (The Queen) in 2007. Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood) and Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose) in 2008.

So what will happen in 2009? Will Danny Boyle finally grab the gold? Will Mickey Rourke finally give an acceptance speech (it sure as hell better not be Colin Farrell). Or will the Academy condemn the HFPA for not at least giving Woody Allen or Sean Penn a reach-around for being overrated?

We’ll see tomorrow.

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